Brazil’s licensed betting market saw a 74 per cent decline in user reach within a week of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva introducing a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting, according to new research from iGaming analytics company Blask.
The analysis found that by 1 October, the proportion of Brazilian panellists visiting licensed .bet.br websites had fallen 74 per cent below normal levels, even before the platforms were required to cease operations. By comparison, traffic to unlicensed betting websites remained relatively stable, fluctuating by no more than 11 per cent from normal levels during the same period.
Licensed operators lose traffic
Following the publication of Provisional Measure 1.394 on 25 September, licensed operators stopped accepting deposits, triggering an immediate decline in player activity. By the following day, page interactions per visitor on licensed websites had fallen 41 per cent, suggesting that many customers were accessing their accounts primarily to withdraw funds rather than place bets.
By 1 October, branded searches for licensed betting operators had declined 83 per cent. However, Blask’s findings suggest that the reduction in licensed activity has not resulted in an equivalent increase in traffic to offshore operators. The company’s research found that 57 per cent of Brazilian bettors had already visited an unlicensed betting website during the 90 days preceding the ban.
While branded searches for offshore operators declined between seven and 17 per cent, their share of betting-related branded searches increased from four to 16 per cent as licensed operators lost visibility. One offshore brand, 1win, recorded activity between 3.5 and 4.9 times its September average. The company also identified increased traffic through mirror domains, including one newly established site that attracted 505 panellists within a week.
Nevertheless, Blask stressed that its data does not yet indicate a widespread migration from licensed to unlicensed betting platforms, with many former licensed customers appearing to have suspended their activity.
India offers potential comparison
Blask also examined the impact of India’s August 2025 betting ban to assess how player behaviour might develop in Brazil. Its analysis found that Indian domestic betting platforms lost 73 per cent of their user reach within three months of the restrictions taking effect. However, 63 per cent of affected players continued betting, predominantly through offshore platforms.
Despite this migration, offshore reach remained broadly stable while branded searches declined by approximately one-third, indicating that betting activity continued even as online search behaviour changed.
Blask believes Brazil could experience a similar shift, potentially more quickly given the established presence of offshore brands offering both sports betting and online casino games. The company emphasised that this remains a projection based on India’s experience rather than an observed trend in Brazil. The findings form part of Blask’s wider analysis of Brazil’s betting restrictions, using behavioural panel data to assess changes in player activity, operator visibility and market demand.
The company noted that its figures are modelled estimates and should not be treated as substitutes for operator financial reports or official regulatory disclosures.
The full report is available at Blask’s website.