US advertisers are forecast to spend more than $14 billion on affiliate marketing in 2026, an 11.4% increase year over year, according to EMARKETER. The forecast points to creator partnerships and retail ecommerce growth as the main drivers, with interest in AI search visibility playing a smaller role.
The projection points to continued investment in the channel even as shoppers discover products across more platforms. For brands and publishers, the question is how to measure the contribution of partners whose content influences a purchase without always generating the final trackable click.
Key Takeaways From the Affiliate Spending Forecast
- US affiliate marketing spending is forecast to exceed $14 billion in 2026, up 11.4% year over year.
- US retail affiliate spending is expected to grow 10.5% this year and outpace retail ecommerce sales growth throughout the forecast period.
- Creator partnerships and expanding ecommerce activity are the main growth factors identified in the public report summary.
- Brands are showing more interest in affiliate publishers as a way to improve AI search visibility, but the forecast says this has contributed only modestly to spending growth so far.
- As creators and AI answers influence shopping journeys, a final-click conversion may capture only part of a partner’s contribution.
Retail Affiliate Investment Is Growing Faster Than Ecommerce
EMARKETER’s affiliate marketing forecast expects US retail affiliate spending to increase 10.5% in 2026 and grow faster than US retail ecommerce sales throughout its forecast period. That comparison concerns growth rates: it does not mean affiliate spending is larger than ecommerce sales.
The forecast also points to cost-conscious shoppers and an uneven economy. Consumers looking for value may encounter affiliates through product comparisons, reviews, deals, and rewards. For advertisers, partnerships tied to agreed outcomes can make spending easier to evaluate when budgets face scrutiny. Those conditions help explain the channel’s appeal, although the public summary does not assign a share of the forecast increase to value-seeking behavior.
There is useful historical context in the Performance Marketing Association’s finding that affiliates drove $113 billion in US ecommerce sales in 2024. That study and forecast use different research, so their spending estimates should not be compared as a single data series.
Creators Move Further Into Affiliate Budgets
The forecast identifies continued interest in creators as a factor behind the 2026 spending forecast. A creator can introduce a product, explain how it works, and recommend where to buy it. A tracked purchase may then earn an affiliate commission, while the earlier exposure may be harder to credit.
That mix complicates budgeting. A partnership might include a production fee, paid amplification, and a commission, each paying for a different part of the work. Brands need to know which outcomes they expect before assessing the results. As Affiverse’s coverage of IAB Creatorfronts explains, inconsistent view definitions and performance reporting already make creator deals difficult to compare. Our podcast episode When Creators and Affiliates Stop Being Different Budget Lines examines how separate teams and success measures can hide their shared contribution to a sale.
Affiliate tracking can show which partner generated a recorded sale. It cannot, on its own, show every interaction that made the customer ready to buy. The more creator commerce moves into affiliate programs, the more important that distinction becomes.
AI Search Creates Value That May Not Produce a Referral
AI search is a smaller factor in the forecast’s spending outlook. It says some brands are interested in working with affiliate publishers to improve how they appear in AI-generated answers. A publisher’s review or comparison may help inform a product recommendation even if the shopper never clicks through to the publisher’s site.
That creates a commercial question: if publisher content helps a brand appear in a shopping answer but produces no affiliate click, what evidence can the brand and publisher use to assess its value? Previous research covered by Affiverse found a gap between publisher appearances in AI answers and activity visible through conventional click-based tracking. Its proprietary measure should not be read as a direct count of missed sales, but it illustrates why referral reports alone may give an incomplete picture. The Open Attribution podcast episode explores a proposed way to pass AI citation signals into tracking systems; it is an emerging approach, not an established way to credit sales.
What Affiliate Managers Should Check
The spending forecast gives teams a reason to examine whether their reporting reflects the partnerships they now fund:
- Separate costs and outcomes. Record creator fees, paid amplification, and commissions distinctly, then compare each with the result it was intended to support.
- Look beyond the last click. Check where creators and editorial partners influence discovery or consideration, while keeping tracked sales as a separate, verifiable measure.
- Treat AI visibility as a signal. Note when partner content appears in relevant shopping answers, but do not count a citation as a sale or assume that it caused one.
The forecast predicts more investment in affiliate marketing. Showing which partners contribute to that growth will require a clearer view of the customer journey than a final-click report alone can provide.