Prediction markets call it trading. Sportsbooks call it betting. On TikTok, the difference can determine which advertising rules apply.
Same two guys, same road trip, same kind of wager. But in one state it’s a bet, and in another it’s a trade.
That’s the backdrop for DraftKings latest ad campaign, “Take Your Game Anywhere,” featuring Kevin Hart and Nick Jonas on a cross-country road trip.
The ad’s promise is an uninterrupted DraftKings experience from “sea to shining sea,” even as the product available to them changes as they travel from state to state.
If they’re in a state where sports betting is legal, they’ll see DraftKings’ sportsbook. When they cross into a state without legal sports betting, DraftKings Predictions is what’s on tap instead.
And the terminology changes to match the product they’re using.
In its press release announcing the campaign, DraftKings describes Hart and Jonas as “placing a bet” at a New Jersey diner and “making a trade” during a stop in California, a state that hasn’t legalized sports betting.
The campaign comes as football season gets underway, and along with that, another wave of prediction market advertising.
Sydney Sweeney is front and center in Novig’s national ad campaign, promoting what the prediction market calls a “sports trading experience.” The risqué ad has since gone viral, showing just how far prediction market advertising has moved into the cultural conversation.
Meanwhile, LeBron James has partnered with Polymarket and appears in its football-season ad alongside celebrities including Eli Manning, Derek Jeter, Sue Bird, and Spike Lee. At one point, Reggie Bush says, “It’s all live trades, people. Trade ball money.”
Even before the latest celebrity push, prediction markets were spending heavily on digital advertising. The American Gaming Association, the trade group that represents the commercial U.S. casino industry, estimates that prediction markets spent almost $200 million marketing their products between January and July 2026.
As prediction markets increasingly describe their products as trading rather than betting, TikTok, one of the world’s biggest social media platforms, is making that same distinction in its advertising policy.
And that gives prediction markets another incentive to use financial-trading language as they try to prove they’re different from traditional sportsbooks. Because on TikTok, those word choices might determine whether they make it through the front door at all.
TikTok Draws an Explicit Line Between “Trading” and “Betting”
In July 2026, TikTok expanded its advertising policy to allow prediction market ads in 17 markets, including the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
However, approval isn’t automatic. TikTok says advertisers “must work with a TikTok sales representative to determine eligibility and obtain permission to run ads.”
One factor TikTok considers when deciding whether a prediction market can advertise on its platform is whether it describes its users’ activity as trading or betting.
Prediction markets using financial-trading or event contract terminology may be allowed to advertise, while those that refer to users as placing bets or use other gambling terminology are not. TikTok excludes odds-based and sportsbook-style betting products from its prediction market advertising category, as well.
Traditional sportsbooks can also advertise on TikTok, but they’re handled under a separate Gambling and Games policy. Sportsbooks that get TikTok’s approval can run ads in markets where sports-betting advertising is permitted, subject to licensing and other requirements.
TikTok isn’t alone in creating rules specifically for prediction markets. Both Google and Microsoft have outlined their own advertising policies for the category.
Google requires advertisers to be certified and meet regulatory requirements, while Microsoft operates a U.S. pilot for approved prediction market advertisers. However, neither company’s public-facing policies makes the explicit distinction between trading and betting terminology that TikTok does.
Prediction markets haven’t always shied away from using gambling language in their advertisements. For example, Kalshi has run ads calling itself “The First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform” and telling users they could “bet on sports in all 50 states.”
But as states have challenged the legality of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated prediction market model for sports event contracts, Kalshi has distanced itself from betting terminology, with most of its ads now using trading language instead.
‘Trading’ vs. ‘Betting’ Is Part of the Regulatory Fight Over Prediction Markets
One of the biggest challenges prediction markets have faced as they’ve made inroads into territory traditionally occupied by sportsbooks is making the case that what they’re offering is different.
The terminology these exchanges use is one way they’ve attempted to do that, with many referring to transactions on their platforms as trades instead of bets.
More recently, prediction markets like ProphetX and Novig have done away with American odds in favor of percentage-based pricing. The move follows August guidance from the CFTC warning that the sportsbook-style format was “likely to mislead market participants about the nature of the transaction.”
But does calling a transaction a “trade” and not a “bet” actually carry any legal significance? We put that question to Stephen Piepgrass, a partner at Troutman Pepper Locke and leader of the firm’s Regulatory Investigations, Strategy + Enforcement (RISE) Practice Group.
“While the distinction is based on how the product is structured and regulated, the terminology also has independent legal and regulatory significance,” Piepgrass told Gambling Insider.
He went on to explain that the language reflects the jurisdictional fight already playing out between prediction markets and state gambling regulators.
“The states who have objected to prediction markets, particularly around sports, claim that this activity is a form of betting, while the CFTC has taken the position that these are swaps or other regulated event contracts,” he said.
That means calling an activity “trading” can do more than just shape how the product sounds to consumers.
“By identifying these transactions as ‘trades’ rather than ‘bets,’ platforms are effectively espousing the CFTC’s view,” Piepgrass told us.
“The distinction between trading and betting has regulatory significance, because it indicates which regulator has jurisdiction over the activity.”
Piepgrass wasn’t speaking to TikTok’s ad rules specifically, but his comments help explain why the platform’s decision to make a distinction between “trade” and “bet” isn’t entirely disconnected from the regulatory framework prediction markets operate under.
What TikTok has done is go further than companies like Google and Microsoft by turning the difference into an explicit advertising rule.
If a prediction market uses financial-trading or event contract language, it may qualify to advertise on the platform. However, those using betting or gambling language don’t qualify under TikTok’s prediction-market advertising rules.
There’s another reason terminology comes into play when prediction markets decide what to call their products.
Piepgrass told us that companies can run into consumer-protection problems if the way they market an activity doesn’t match what the product actually is.
“A company that characterizes the activity one way for regulatory purposes, but another way in practice, could face enforcement risk based on allegedly deceptive advertising and marketing practices,” he said.
That makes consistency important while the fight over who has authority to regulate sports prediction markets is still playing out.
“Although it’s impossible to eliminate all risk in this context, once a business chooses to participate in these activities, they can minimize risk by ensuring how they market these products lines up with how they treat them for legal and regulatory purposes,” Piepgrass said.
Platform Rules Can Reinforce ‘Sports Trading’ Language
“Where access to a particular advertising platform depends, at least in part, on the terminology a company uses, there is usually a strong incentive to use the permitted language,” Marla Royne Stafford told Gambling Insider.
Stafford is chair of the Department of Marketing and International Business at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Advertising.
That terminology is only one part of TikTok’s policy, which also takes product characteristics and licensing into account, Stafford pointed out.
Still, she said that adapting language for an important advertising channel could create a “plausible spillover effect” beyond that platform.
Stafford said companies usually want their branding to feel consistent across ads, apps, websites, and other channels, which gives them a reason to keep using trading language outside a single platform campaign.
The language may also influence how consumers view the activity they’re engaging in when using a prediction market.
“Financial terminology could help these companies reach people who might be reluctant to describe themselves as sports bettors but are very comfortable seeing themselves as knowledgeable fans or savvy traders,” Stafford told us.
“Over time, repeated use could help establish ‘sports trading’ as a familiar consumer category.”
That type of framing is on full display in the star-studded campaigns from Novig, Polymarket, and DraftKings. And Stafford said the choice between trading and betting can signal different things to consumers.
“The term ‘trading’ may evoke analysis, expertise, and, hence, informed decision-making. The word ‘betting’ more directly elicits wagering, chance, and entertainment,” she said.
Consumers are risking money on an uncertain outcome, whether the activity is described as betting or trading, but the word choice could change their perception of the risk involved.
“The financial terminology could lead some people to believe that the activity is more sophisticated or more controllable,” Stafford said.
She explained that when celebrity partnerships and financial language are used together, prediction markets can come across as a more mainstream, tech-focused way to engage with sports culture.
“The sports imagery supplies excitement, while the trading vocabulary supplies a sense of analytical credibility.”
An online survey commissioned by the American Gaming Association found that trading and investing language shows up in prediction market messaging and in how sports event contract bettors describe what they’re doing.
In the survey, 28% of sports event contract bettors described their activity as investing, compared with 9% of sportsbook bettors. Another 31% said they had encountered trading or investing comparisons in platform messaging, compared with 7% of sportsbook users.
Stafford cautioned against attributing the broader language shift entirely to TikTok.
“Some of these companies may already prefer financial terminology because it supports their business identity and regulatory position,” she explained.
What Consumers Do May Matter More Than What the Activity Is Called
Research on consumer behavior hasn’t kept up with just how quickly prediction markets are growing. As a result, there’s still a gap in what researchers know about whether people who trade sports event contracts on these exchanges behave differently from those who place bets with traditional sportsbooks.
“We need more data before drawing firm conclusions about similarities and differences between these groups,” Shane Kraus told Gambling Insider.
Kraus is an associate professor of psychology at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, where he is the director of the Behavioral Addictions Lab.
While researchers still aren’t sure how different sports bettors and event-contract traders are, there are reasons to look closely at how people behave on prediction markets versus sportsbooks.
“If someone puts money on their favorite football team on Sunday, repeatedly checks the value of that position during the game, and experiences gains or losses based on the outcome, many of the underlying psychological and behavioral processes may look very similar to traditional sports betting,” Kraus explained.
That raises the question of what consumers think they’re doing when the activity is presented as a trade instead of a bet.
“Financial-market language may lead some people to interpret highly speculative, short-duration wagering opportunities as a form of investing rather than recognize their behavioral similarities to gambling,” Kraus told us.
Kraus said that “whether an app says ‘buy,’ ‘trade,’ or ‘bet’ matters because terminology can shape consumers’ expectations and perceptions of risk.”
But when it comes to public health, Kraus placed greater emphasis on factors such as how often people participate, how quickly they can repeat the behavior, how much money they risk, whether they chase losses, what consumer protections are available, and their level of financial and gambling literacy.
“There is considerable debate about what prediction markets should be called and how they should be classified,” Kraus said. “From a research standpoint, I am more interested in what people actually do on these platforms.”
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