The Gambling Wire: CFTC Files New Prediction Market Rules for White House Review

The regulator is moving to further define which event contracts qualify as swaps as the prediction-market sector expands its media reach, product offerings and user safeguards.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sent two potentially significant prediction market rulemakings to the White House for review amid an intensifying jurisdictional fight with state regulators. At the same time, CBS News began incorporating Kalshi data into its midterm election coverage, and Polymarket introduced new responsible-trading tools.

Other leading prediction market news includes new reports of insider trading and multiple expansion announcements. Away from the sector, Fanatics secured another round of legal wins, and MGM Resorts left the door open to a potential acquisition of People Inc.

The Big Story: CFTC Advances New Prediction Market Rules to White House Review

The CFTC has sent two prediction-market-related rules to the White House for review, including one that would exclude casino-style gambling products from the definition of a swap.

Both measures were submitted to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on Sept. 28 and remain pending review.

One proposed rule, RIN 3038-AF82, is titled “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ to Include Event Contracts.” Meanwhile, RIN 3038-AF81 would further define swaps to “Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products.” Neither is classified as economically significant.

The casino-style gambling measure is listed at the interim final rule stage rather than as a proposed rule, whereas the event-contract measure would first proceed through the proposed rule process. The full provisions, however, will not be clear until the rules are publicly released.

The potential expansion of prediction markets into casino-style products has raised concerns within the regulated gambling industry. The new filing appears to address that concern, although exactly where the CFTC intends to draw the line remains unclear for now.

In a June rule proposal, the CFTC took a broad view of what constitutes “gaming,” specifically citing casino games such as roulette, as well as games of skill, including poker and chess.

Meanwhile, the event-contract filing comes amid an ongoing fight over whether sports contracts qualify as swaps under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.

Federal appeals courts are split. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in New Jersey, while the Ninth and Sixth circuits later rejected similar arguments in Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee. Separately, the Ninth Circuit ruled that sports contracts entered from Tribal lands can constitute Class III gaming under IGRA.

The dispute could now reach the U.S. Supreme Court, with New Jersey, Robinhood and Crypto.com all seeking review of related rulings.

The Daily Wire

CBS Adds Kalshi Data to Midterm Election Coverage

CBS News has begun incorporating Kalshi prediction-market data into its coverage of the 2026 midterm elections.

The network introduced the partnership on Wednesday on CBS Mornings, describing Kalshi as its “prediction market sponsor.” CBS elections director Anthony Salvanto said the market data will supplement, rather than replace, the network’s independently produced polling and political analysis.

The agreement adds CBS to Kalshi’s growing list of media relationships. CNN named Kalshi its official prediction-market partner in December 2025, while CNBC subsequently announced its own agreement to incorporate Kalshi data.

Polymarket Launches Responsible-Trading Safeguards

Polymarket has introduced new user-protection tools as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny over consumer safeguards.

Users can now voluntarily self-exclude from the platform for periods ranging from 30 days to permanently, while U.S. customers can set daily, weekly or monthly deposit limits. Reducing a limit takes effect immediately, while increasing or removing one requires a cooling-off period.

Polymarket also launched a Trust & Safety Center and partnered with Birches Health to provide resources for users experiencing compulsive trading behaviors. The company said the initiative will include clinical resources and educational materials on responsible trading.

CFTC Probes Former Congressman’s Kalshi Trades

The CFTC is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over prediction-market trades tied to the presidential pardon he later received from former President Joe Biden.

Kinzinger acknowledged placing less than $1,000 across two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025. That includes a position on whether he personally would receive a pardon. Screenshots he provided to CNN showed $669 wagered and $823 netted.

Kinzinger said he had no advance knowledge of the pardons, had not discussed them with anyone in the Biden White House and believed the trades complied with Kalshi’s rules.

CNN reported that Kalshi separately identified the trades during a review of suspicious activity and flagged them to the regulator.

The investigation marks the latest investigation into insider trading on prediction markets. Previous cases include former Congressman George Santos, a former White House teleprompter operator, a U.S. soldier and a Google engineer. In August, reports appeared that federal authorities are preparing a new batch of cases.

DOJ Says Venezuela Contracts Qualify as Swaps

One of those cases produced another development on Wednesday. The Justice Department pushed back against an attempt to use recent Kalshi appellate rulings in the case against U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke.

In a Sept. 30 filing, prosecutors argued that the Sixth and Ninth circuits addressed only certain sports event contracts and did not establish that all binary event contracts fall outside the Commodity Exchange Act’s swap definition.

The DOJ said the Venezuela-related contracts at issue would still qualify as swaps under the narrower appellate interpretations because they were “inherently economic” and could be used to hedge financial exposure. Oral argument is scheduled for Oct. 7.

Cboe, ProphetX and Novig Push Prediction-Market Expansion

Commercial expansion into prediction markets continued on Wednesday.

Cboe Global Markets announced plans to launch binary contracts tied to key performance indicators at 23 publicly traded companies, subject to regulatory approval. Robinhood will be the first retail broker to distribute the products.

Unlike event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated designated contract markets, Cboe plans to offer the contracts as SEC-regulated securities products on its registered securities exchange. The company expects to roll out the new product this month.

Elsewhere, ProphetX partnered with Plaee on technology designed to speed up onboarding for operators seeking to distribute its federally regulated prediction-market products.

Meanwhile, Front Office Sports reported that Novig is discussing a funding round that could value it at up to $2 billion. The valuation would be four times Novig’s $500 million February raise. Novig confirmed that it is fundraising.

Fanatics Wins Trading Card Case in Trio of Antitrust Dismissals

Fanatics secured three antitrust victories in federal court on Tuesday, including the dismissal of a lawsuit alleging the company monopolized the increasingly popular trading card market.

U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain dismissed claims against Fanatics, MLB, the NFL, the NBA and related players’ associations brought by consumers who alleged Fanatics’ licensing deals led to higher card prices, reduced choice and lower quality.

Swain found the plaintiffs had not sufficiently shown that Fanatics’ conduct caused them to pay higher prices, rather than ruling on the broader monopoly allegations themselves.

The decision comes as trading cards are attracting growing attention beyond traditional collectors, including from gambling and fintech companies looking to tap into digital collectibles and card-trading products. Fanatics remains in separate antitrust litigation with rival card manufacturer Panini.

MGM Leaves Door Open to People Inc. Acquisition

MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle has not ruled out reversing roles and acquiring Barry Diller’s People Inc., one week after People abandoned its attempt to buy MGM.

Asked about the possibility at G2E, Hornbuckle said MGM would continue to pursue shareholders’ interests and try to unlock value in a company that management believes is significantly undervalued.

People withdrew its $48.30-per-share proposal to acquire MGM’s remaining public shares last week but retained its roughly 27% stake in the casino operator. Shortly after, reports emerged that MGM was exploring a potential offer for People.

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