The SBC News team are live on the ground for the second day of the SBC Summit. Stay tuned to this blog for the latest updates from the SBC News team on the ground at Lisbon – Ted Orme-Claye, Patrick Killeen and Ted Menmuir – as well as our colleagues at iGaming Expert.
4:45pm: CEO expects insider trading scandal to rock prediction markets
Reporting by Ted Orme-Claye
“The resiliency of prediction markets is going to outlast the legislative and the judicial storm that’s coming our way,” says John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, the company behind PredictIt.
Philips has dire warnings for the prediction markets space. He expects some kind of major insider trading scandal, either involving finance or sports, to cause huge problems for prediction markets as a whole at some point in the near future.
“There is going to be a bust before a boom”, he says.
Joey Levy, meanwhile, believes that the boom is already well underway – Kalshi and Polymarket’s repeated lofty valuations are testament to this, in all fairness – but the decision by the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) is going to be the true test.
“I don’t think anybody truly knows where SCOTUS is going on this,” he says. “There is a boom right now from a commercial and review perspective.
“Companies are growing their customer bases and volume metrics pretty significantly, which is unsatisfying given the nationwide nature of their products.”
4:15pm: Kalshi “would love” to expand in Europe
Reporting by Ted Orme-Claye
Kalshi’s Chief Risk Officer, Udesh Jha, reveals that the firm has indeed been negotiating with European regulators, but he doesn’t expect the firm to fully set up shop in the EU any time soon given the fragmented regulatory framework.
“We would love to,” he says. “We are talking to regulators across the pond like ESMA and others. You can’t get the regulation clarified in one go, it’s going to be a process.”
3:50pm: Kalshi’s Chief Risk Officer takes to the stage
Reporting by Patrick Killeen
Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer at Kalshi, is on stage to discuss whether or not prediction markets are gambling.
Pedro Mendez de Vigo, Head of Legal at Crypto.com, says the CFTC’s regulation in the US trumps any regulation state-by-state (I don’t think there was any pun intended).
Jha explains the perspective of one of the biggest players in the space, saying: “At Kalshi, we spent several years waiting for regulation to actually launch our first product. We wanted it to be regulated in the most prudent form.
“We want the ability to police the actions of participants. We don’t believe that fragmented regulation, or a patchwork of 50 different state regulations on different orders of risk controls and surveillance is ever going to be as good as a federal market will give you.”
3:40pm: Gmonitor claims the SBC First Pitch 2026 prize
Reporting by Ted Orme-Claye
Another year, another set of five companies enter SBC’s dragons den, the First Pitch contest for iGaming startups.
Each finalist had three minutes to pitch their products, followed by a three minute Q&A with a panel of judges, each of them an iGaming investment expert.
This year’s winner has just been revealed as Gmonitor, an AI-powered competitive intelligence platform that tracks market activity including promotions, games, advertising, rankings and regulation.
The company walks away with a prize package worth over €100,000, including €42,000 worth of sports, gambling and engagement data access, a booth at the 2027 SBC Summit worth €15,000, and €10,000 in AWS promotional credits.
3:30pm: In an ideal world…
Reporting by Ted Orme-Claye
“You need to catch the fraudster, not stop the promotion,”: says Mario Cardoso, Fraud and Risk Manager at Solverde.pt, during a discussion around bonus abuse.
In Cardoso’s ideal world, operator fraud teams would catch the most bonus abusers and fraudsters as possible, and keep the promotion possible for their legitimate customers.
But unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world, and technology like AI is making life a lot easier for bonus abusers. And while AI can be used by operators for fraud prevention too, it’s far from the silver bullet.
“AI can help you find the partners between customers, but it’s never the same story,” says Rahul Das, Management Consultant at Spyglass Insights.
“AI is only as good as the data it runs on,” he adds.
3:15pm: ADI partnership a good litmus test for UK’s reaction to predictions
Reporting by Patrick Killeen
Matchbook CEO Ronan McDonagh is on stage now discussing his company’s recent moves, in particular its recent deal with ADI Predictstreet.
We have an exclusive interview with Ronan coming soon, so we won’t reveal too much, but this is what he had to say on the opportunity which arose very shortly before the 2026 World Cup.
“We looked at the US a few years ago but because of regulation back then we decided against it. When the regulation changed, it gave us another chance to look, and at a federal level, it makes a lot more sense to re-enter that market,” he explains.
“ADI Predictstreet brought value to us, but we also brought value for them as we gave them established access to the UK market. There was a lot of curiosity as it was a unique thing for UK consumers, but it was a good way to find out how those consumers would react to a predictions-style product.”
2:45 pm: Navigating the World Cup hangover
Reporting by Christian Lee
The 2026 World Cup marked a major occasion for Mexico’s sports betting operators as the country played host to the tournament.
However, what is vital was how to navigate the post-World Cup hangover, according to Yoni Sidi, CEO of Winpot.mx.
He said: “The most important thing that we try and look at is what those users are doing post-World Cup, and that for me is not just looking at a 90-day or a 180-day World Cup cohort. I’m actually looking at day two and day three.
“I’m trying to see if that user that has come for the World Cup, are they betting on Monday Night Football in the NFL? Are they betting on MLB? Are we able to cross-sell that user through to a casino product or a free-to-play game?
“To get them to come to play with you at the World Cup wasn’t the difficult part. The real work starts after the final whistle of the final, and that is maintaining the customer and making sure they can stay with you for a long period of time.”
Sidi also called on Mexico’s authorities to include operators in the conversation as they seek to update laws that date back to 1947 to ensure that they don’t make ‘stupid decisions’.
2:30pm: SBC celebrates breaking down barriers and finding community
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
As the Summit draws to its final hours, senior management from both the events and media side of SBC are giving industry press a breakdown of what this year’s Summit has achieved – and what lies ahead, with a new event joining SBC’s portfolio next year.
Andrew McCarron, SBC Media Managing Director, explained: “One of our bigger changes that we are quite excited for is the SBC Summit Europe, which we are hosting in Amsterdam from April 19-21.
“It’s going to be a conference-first event … and we’re heavily looking at the regulated markets.
“We will have regulators there, as what we’ve seen from the past few weeks is that dialogue with regulators is going to be critical to the sustainability of this industry.”
McCarron reminds stakeholders that at a time of regulatory and legislative pressure on the industry, with Brazil’s ban on betting having only just been announced, the industry needs to break down barriers and ensure “people understand what their expectations are of each other”.
Meanwhile, Stuart Duff, Head of Events, Flagship Shows, spoke on how this year’s event has shone a spotlight on the importance of community within the wider industry.
“We really wanted to drive into not just competition content this year, but the education side of things as well,” he said.
“We have our tech academies to really sort of direct communication programmes with actionable takeaways that people can take back to their businesses.”
2:25pm: Prediction markets still face non-regulatory challenges in Europe
Reporting by Patrick Killeen
A change of scenery for myself, swapping over with Editor Ted Orme-Claye to cover the Global Prediction Markets Forum.
On a panel hosted by SBC’s very own Adam Candee (SBC Americas Editor), Alex Gowar, Chief Growth Officer at UK-focused Matchbook, feels there is still a non-regulatory challenge for prediction markets to succeed in Europe as they have done Stateside.
Gowar says: “I think for those for whom there is no choice, prediction markets have been an extraordinary opportunity in innovation. If you live in Texas or California, a regulatory positioning means that you can now have a regulated bet in a market which is looking after its customers, that has got a contract behind it, that you can trust is a fantastic thing.
“The question for me is, what do I do if I do have a choice in regulated markets like in Europe? Do I choose a sportsbook or do I choose a prediction bet?
“I think it all comes down to how it’s presented to the customer, and I don’t see that there’s an overwhelming demand for it in a world where sportsbook opportunities are there, so we’re going to have to educate customers into a new way of betting, where there isn’t necessarily a particular benefit.”
1:35pm: BETBY unveils crossover SlotBets product
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
“We see our software in BETBY as not just competing with other sportsbooks but with all the other instant products on the market,” says Chris Nikolopoulos, Chief Commercial Officer at BETBY, at the SBC Summit press conference.
“We try to make products that are fast, visual, and entertaining, and cater to this specific niche. Trying to create a highly engaging product which can create the appetite for users to combine both the casino UX and UI, together with the sports action side of the event itself.
“Sports is the core of our business. We always feel sports itself should drive the result. We didn’t make a traditional slot, we wanted to create something with sports dynamics.”
Describing the product to the audience, Nikolopoulos adds that SlotBets “takes the familiar mechanics of slots and connects them directly to real sporting events”.
“Instead of an RNG determining the outcome, live sports data drives each reel, creating 15-second betting rounds that sit somewhere between sports betting and slots.”
1:25pm: Brazil prohibition labelled illegal as optimism remains
Reporting by Christian Lee
ANJL Legal Counsel Bernardo Cavalcanti Freire labelled President Lula’s ban on the industry as illegal, and he emphasised that he is optimistic of a decision in the coming days to reopen the market as the provisional measure is further scrutinised.
“I’m very optimistic. I think that it’s completely illegal what happened. But if we can get an intervention, then all the lights will return automatically,” he said.
Freire noted that Lula’s insistence that gambling has fuelled indebtedness and addiction in Brazil are only backed by studies, rather than clear data.
Beatriz Melges Lopes, LATAM Director at BetConstruct AI, admitted that many missed that the Bets regime regulated something that was happening for over 80 years before rules came in, and she now raised concerns that players have been forced back to the black market.
She said: “Today isn’t a cry for help, but the industry globally needs to be together and show that going to non-regulated space is increasing the illegal market.
“Players are not going to stop placing bets because you don’t have advertisements or governance. They’re going to find a place that they can bet. And right now in Brazil, you don’t know where [players’] money is coming from. You’re not collecting taxes. You’re not doing anything properly.”
13:15pm: Light refreshments
The team just took a moment off to go and grab some lunch. Ted Orme-Claye had a pad thai, while iGaming Expert’s Joe Streeter had a doughnut. You be the judge of our dietary choices.
Because they didn’t provide any photos of their food, we are definitely judging them from our home base back in Manchester.
We’ll be back soon for today’s first press conference.
13:10pm: You’re missing out if you’re not there
Our Global Prediction Markets Forum seems to be packed! There is almost no room left in the conference hall at the Myriad Hotel in Lisbon.
It is easy to understand why judging by the live coverage of our Editor, Ted Orme-Claye. There is a constant clash of opinions on one of the hottest topics gripping the market right now – prediction markets.
Suffice to say, if you’re not there, you’re missing out. Lucky for you, our live blog will give you some of the most important highlights coming out of the event. Stay tuned!
13:05pm: WagerWire aware of the task ahead
Reporting by Ted Orme-Claye
After securing approval in principle from the Gibraltar government earlier this year, WagerWire finally gained its prediction markets licence under the territory’s new regulatory framework just last week.
Guy Dotan, one of WagerWire’s co-founders, makes it clear that senior leadership is aware of the incredibly bright spotlight on the company, on Gibraltar’s new framework, and on the prediction markets sector generally.
Senior management at the US firm are heavy on the ground at the Prediction Market Forum.
“Because we hold such an important license, we need to make sure that everything that we’re doing honors and respects the client nature of the business that we’re building,” he says.
“KYC, AML, all of this stuff is so integral to the entire experience to make sure that everybody that is trading on the platform is doing it in a way that we know exactly who they are and doing it properly.”
1:00pm: AI connectivity fuels new criteria of IT threats
Reporting by Ted Menmuir
Across all-areas of iGaming’s value-chain, cybersecurity risks are expanding as cloud services, APIs, third parties, payments, and identity systems widen the “attack surface and increase potential blast radius.”
IT threats are compounding as iGaming platforms are built on interconnected systems and a dependence on major cloud providers such as AWS, Google, and Microsoft. Though systems provide a layer of comfort, experts view too many “limited strategies” when confronting major attacks.
“The actual threats and the actual methods haven’t really changed. It’s just the speed and the economy of making an attack has changed,” explained Justin Cosnett, CPO at Continent 8.
AI Automated bots, phishing and accessible tools allow criminals to launch campaigns at lower cost, while interconnected platforms create more opportunities to compromise operators and suppliers.
Piotr Lisak, COO at Q Securities, argued that accessibility matters as much as technical sophistication.
“It’s just the scale and ease of access to the tools which enable organising these attacks,” he said, highlighting social engineering as a persistent vulnerability.
Employees therefore remain central to security, as criminals seek to manipulate people into sharing information or granting access.
The panel also challenged treating cybersecurity and fraud as separate disciplines. Breaches can enable stolen customer information, account abuse and financial crime.
“Cyber and fraud aren’t two separate things that you need to protect against,” Cosnett stated.
For Ian Perrygrove, Chief Risk Officer at Kwiff, businesses must equip security specialists with sufficient resources while retaining accountability.
“We cannot delegate our responsibility to AI,” he stressed. “It is a support mechanism for everyone, good and bad.”
12:40pm: How much money do you think you can save in this piggy bank?
12:30pm: Champagne to celebrate in style
Have you booked your hotels for next year yet? Just kidding, we know it’s only been 10 minutes since we announced our landmark partnership with the Mayor of Lisbon.
It doesn’t stop us from opening a bottle of champagne, though! Our Founder and CEO, Rasmus Sojmark, and Lisbon Mayor Moedas are sipping from their glasses as they envision all the opportunities that await over the next three years.
“Lisbon is an amazing city,” Sojmark says. “Looking forward to being here for many many years to come.”
Cheers to that!
12:25pm: Has Gibraltar solved prediction markets’ ambiguity problem?
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
The future of prediction markets will hinge heavily on when and how the debate about which “side of the line”, as the moderator today has put it, is decided. Are they financial services, or gambling?
Andrew Lyman is confident Gibraltar has got the closest to solving this problem out of any other jurisdiction.
“None of us can escape the fact there is ambiguity in this,” he says.
“You can deal with it in a positive way or a negative way, and just continue the debate about which side of the line prediction markets fall.
“What we’ve hopefully achieved in Gibraltar is to some extent is to solve that ambiguity.”
12:20pm: It’s official! SBC Summit Lisbon returns next year
BIG NEWS!
Our very own Founder and CEO, Rasmus Sojmark, has put pen to paper with Lisbon Mayor Carlos Moedas, for what is a long-term agreement to secure the annual return of SBC Summit to Lisbon until 2030! Better start booking those hotels.
12:00pm: The risks of swimming against the tide
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
Prediction markets are only going to keep growing, driven by consumer demand, argues Andrew Lyman, the Gibraltar government’s Gambling Commissioner.
He argues that regulators need to take note and ensure the growing sector does not fall into the black and grey markets. He welcomes other jurisdictions to follow Gibraltar’s lead, with the territory launching the world’s first standalone predictions market regime earlier this year.
“If you are in denial and you want to ban or block, then you are fighting against the tide of consumers who really want this product. Therefore it’s much better to regulate than to ban or block.”
Meanwhile, Charles Mizzi, CEO of the Malta Gaming Authority, is confident that its current regulator framework accommodates prediction markets. He states that many operators are expressing interest in a licence on the island.
“They are applying,” he says. “There is a lot of interest. Over the last months, we’ve seen huge interest from operators. We’ve had a lot of discussions with them.”
11:45am Lines drawn on prediction markets customers
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
We all know how big prediction markets have gotten – Kalshi is eyeing up an eye watering valuation of $50bn – but the debate about how they should be classed, and how their customers should be classed, rages on.
As the first full panel of the Global Prediction Market Forum gets underway, the difference of opinion is drawn early on as Zach Doctor, Cofounder & CEO of WagerWire, Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner, and Terence Cassar, Partner at GTG, state that they view prediction markets customers as “traders not bettors”.
Charles Mizzi, CEO of the Malta Gaming Authority (MGA), however, firmly views them as bettors.
11:31am: Prediction markets in the UK – an inevitability?
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
Martyn Elliott believes that the UK will eventually regulate prediction markets in some form, if only for institutional investors. The simple reason for this is economics.
“Eventually it will definitely happen,” he says. “The financial industry is so important to the UK economy that the government wants it to be as competitive as possible.”
However, the prospects of the EU accepting Kalshi’s model of prediction markets are not looking as strong. Sports contracts in particular are widely seen as betting products by European regulators.
11:30am: Where do Latam opportunities exist after “hard week for all”?
Reporting by Patrick Killeen
Zeno Ossko, CEO of BetWarrior puts it lightly when describing the emotions of businesses active across Latin America, saying “it’s a hard week for all of us”.
The ban in Brazil, however, has made Ossko wary about whether similar situations may arise across other Latam countries.
He comments: “We are all very focused on the rest of the Latam markets to see what regulatory changes may happen next.”
In terms of where in Latin America to target, Juana Bischoff, Head of Latam at Oddin.gg, doesn’t have a specific country – but a specific niche.
“Esports is definitely something you should focus on because the expansion and the potential is there,” she says.
“We work with different operators in Latin America, and one of them is operating in Peru, and there the sport grew by 92% year-over-year, so the opportunity is there.
“When it comes to expansion, when it comes to player acquisition, I invite everybody to target this group.”
11:15am: The Global Prediction Markets Forum gets underway
Reporting by Ted-Orme Claye
Martyn Elliott, SBC Insights Director, kicks off the Global Prediction Market Forum.
The rapidly growing and ever controversial products are high on the agenda on the third day of the SBC Summit, and Elliott notes that governments, regulators, and probably people within this very room, are constantly changing their minds about the product.
Summarising his and his team’s research into the sector, Elliott remarks that despite the regulatory uncertainty around them, prediction markets are undeniably here to stay, with the emergence of sports events contracts cementing the platforms’ status.
“This is not just the allure of the new, these customers are sticking around and are not just going to drift back to sportsbooks,” he says.
10:30am: VNLOK’s Meta lawsuit gets the iGD treatment
Ted Menmuir and Ted Orme-Claye join iGaming Daily host Fernando Noodt and producer Anaya McDonald to discuss news coming out of the Netherlands – the news that VNLOK, the country’s biggest betting industry trade body, is taking big tech giant Meta to court.
VNLOK and others allege that Meta is failing in its duties due to the amount of advertising by illegal gambling platforms that takes place on its platforms. People who checked out yesterday’s coverage will be all too aware of how much discourse this is driving right now, with big tech firms the subject of fiery debate on the conference stages.
10:00am: It’s almost over, make it last!
Time sure flies when you’re having fun! We’re already in the last day of our event, and what an event it’s been!
From pop-rock concerts (shout out to The Script), to sports stars like Michael Jordan, Charles Oliveira and Niklas Süle, to high-stake debates about global gambling regulations.
Also, congratulations to all the winners in our Affiliate Leaders Awards competition! You all deserve it, keep being awesome!
After all of that, could it get better? Of course it can! Our Prediction Markets Conference takes place today. You can find a link to that in the LinkedIn post below.
To close off the day, we’ve got our SBC Awards lined up for tonight, starting at 6:30pm at the MEO Arena and hosted by Dutch football legend Edgar Davids.
And to end it all with a bang, our flagship INFINITY closing party starts at 8pm, headlined by the EDM legend himself, Tiësto!
Don’t forget to come back to this live blog to follow all other highlights from the final day of SBC Summit Lisbon 2026. See you on the show floor!