Data shows Kalshi and Polymarket search interest spikes during political elections with restricted territories showing elevated, not suppressed, public curiosity
CasinoReviews.net, the independent online casino reviewer, has released a report showing that regulatory bans on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket drive higher public search interest, rather than lower.
Global attention to these platforms is fuelled far more by contested political elections than by the regulatory fights that dominate their press coverage. The research, derived from a full year of primary Google Trends data (September 2025-September 2026) cross-referenced against the IFES ElectionGuide.org global election calendar and dated regulatory reporting, analysed search behaviour for Kalshi and Polymarket across 51 countries.
Amongst the key findings, the standout was that bans correlate with, not against, search interest. Eight of the top 15 countries by Polymarket search share, and four of the top 15 for Kalshi, are jurisdictions that currently restrict or have formally banned prediction markets.
In addition, search interest regularly peaks in line with political elections, particularly in closely contested races. The single highest point in worldwide Polymarket search interest across the year was during Peru’s presidential runoff (June 7, 2026). The second-largest sustained peak occurred during Hungary’s parliamentary election and Peru’s initial presidential voting, both held April 12, 2026.
The research has also found that Kalshi trades more money than Polymarket but loses the search-attention race almost everywhere. Kalshi narrowly leads Polymarket in its home market (21% vs. 19% share in the United States) but falls to single digits across nearly every other country studied, pointing to Polymarket’s broader global awareness, with Kalshi much more US-centric.
Findings from CasinoReviews also highlighted that at least one major platform is deliberately marketing into a country where it is banned. Polymarket is hiring Mandarin-speaking staff and building Lunar New Year-specific betting markets despite being blocked by China’s Great Firewall.
The findings suggest that geo-blocking may be a weak tool for reducing public exposure to prediction markets. Hungary’s restriction is IP-based and openly acknowledged as bypassable by VPN in the regulator’s own statement, while China’s Great Firewall method routes hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts per month through VPN regs.
The research also points to a clear problem for the sector: platforms are being pulled into the news cycle by contested elections and geopolitical crises far more than by their own regulatory battles, and the countries most engaged with them are disproportionately the ones trying hardest to keep them out.
Nikoleta Kuncheva, Lead Researcher and Project Manager for CasinoReviews.net, said: “Looking at the last 12 months of prediction markets, and the sheer media noise generated around them, it’s clear that trying to combat their rise has seen a similar spike in publicity. Rather than bans quietening the noise around the platforms, we’re seeing the opposite occur, highlighting that the current approach isn’t working for regulators.
“From gaining cut-through in restricted markets to huge interest around major political events, it’s clear that prediction markets have a place in the public conscience, and this will seemingly only grow as we head into the key midterm votes in the United States, as well as numerous elections throughout Europe.”
The full research brief, including methodology, sourcing, and the underlying dataset, is available upon request.